I've decided to start tracking my success rate on guessing the dram in blind pours for kicks. With my 2021 Advent calendar around the corner I thought I'd post my success rate for the prior two years and then sum up this year's after completion. Correct guess is 1/1, and I'll count non-specific guesses as a decimal with reasoning provided for each score. Here's the breakdown:
- Advent 2019*
- Correct on Octomore and edition, but not release: 0.5
- Total whiff: 0
- Correct distillery, ABV range, peatedness and cask type: 0.75
- Correct distillery and age range: 0.5
- Only correct about the peat: 0.1
- Correct distillery, casks involved, and age range: 0.75
- Correct distillery and IB, but not specific bottler: 0.5
- Correct but deduction due to lack of conviction: 0.9
- Nailed it: 1
- Pretty much only guessed the peat: 0.1
- Got the cask type right, but missed on the brand: 0.25
- Not really close at all: 0
- Correct distillery, but way off on the rest: .25
- Correct distillery kind of, and right about not core: 0.75
- Correct distillery: 0.25
- Correct distillery and cask: 0.75
- Ditto: 0.75
- Correct but slightly non-specific: 1
- Wrong: 0
- Right: 1
- Correct distillery: 0.25
- Correct: 1
- Correct: 1
- Correct, but I knew it was the only option: 0.5
- Total: 12.6/24 (12.1/23 if you don't count the field of 1 guess)
- Advent 2020
- Correct distillery age age: 0.5
- Correct about blend an confused by all elements: 0.5
- Nope: 0
- Correct bottler: 0.25
- Correct distillery, ABV, cask, and age range: 0.75
- Correct distillery and bottler: 0.75
- Correct distillery and bottler: 0.5
- Not very close: 0
- Correct: 1
- Correct age range and distiller-ish: 0.5
- Correct distillery but wrong casks: 0.5
- Correct, but compromised: 0.1
- Just a bit outside: 0
- Not even a hit on one of the options: 0
- Correct distillery: 0.25
- Hit on a cask and sort of got the distillery: 0.25
- Nope: 0
- Correct cask: 0.25
- Correct ABV: 0.1
- Wrong, but kind of got it in possible alternatives: 0.1
- Guessed that it was a peated dram: 0.1
- Correct distillery: 0.25
- Correct cask: 0.25
- Not quite: 0
- Total: 6.9/24
*This was from a selection of 24 samples so while I didn't reference a list, I at least vaguely knew what samples were in the pool, and of course the 24th guess could only have been one thing.
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