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01 December 2021

Blind Guess Accuracy

I've decided to start tracking my success rate on guessing the dram in blind pours for kicks. With my 2021 Advent calendar around the corner I thought I'd post my success rate for the prior two years and then sum up this year's after completion. Correct guess is 1/1, and I'll count non-specific guesses as a decimal with reasoning provided for each score. Here's the breakdown:

  • Advent 2019*
    1. Correct on Octomore and edition, but not release: 0.5
    2. Total whiff: 0
    3. Correct distillery, ABV range, peatedness and cask type: 0.75
    4. Correct distillery and age range: 0.5
    5. Only correct about the peat: 0.1
    6. Correct distillery, casks involved, and age range: 0.75
    7. Correct distillery and IB, but not specific bottler: 0.5
    8. Correct but deduction due to lack of conviction: 0.9
    9. Nailed it: 1
    10. Pretty much only guessed the peat: 0.1
    11. Got the cask type right, but missed on the brand: 0.25
    12. Not really close at all: 0
    13. Correct distillery, but way off on the rest: .25
    14. Correct distillery kind of, and right about not core: 0.75
    15. Correct distillery: 0.25
    16. Correct distillery and cask: 0.75
    17. Ditto: 0.75
    18. Correct but slightly non-specific: 1
    19. Wrong: 0
    20. Right: 1
    21. Correct distillery: 0.25
    22. Correct: 1
    23. Correct: 1
    24. Correct, but I knew it was the only option: 0.5
    • Total: 12.6/24 (12.1/23 if you don't count the field of 1 guess)

  • Advent 2020
    1. Correct distillery age age: 0.5
    2. Correct about blend an confused by all elements: 0.5
    3. Nope: 0
    4. Correct bottler: 0.25
    5. Correct distillery, ABV, cask, and age range: 0.75
    6. Correct distillery and bottler: 0.75
    7. Correct distillery and bottler: 0.5
    8. Not very close: 0
    9. Correct: 1
    10. Correct age range and distiller-ish: 0.5
    11. Correct distillery but wrong casks: 0.5
    12. Correct, but compromised: 0.1
    13. Just a bit outside: 0
    14. Not even a hit on one of the options: 0
    15. Correct distillery: 0.25
    16. Hit on a cask and sort of got the distillery: 0.25
    17. Nope: 0
    18. Correct cask: 0.25
    19. Correct ABV: 0.1
    20. Wrong, but kind of got it in possible alternatives: 0.1
    21. Guessed that it was a peated dram: 0.1
    22. Correct distillery: 0.25
    23. Correct cask: 0.25
    24. Not quite: 0
    • Total: 6.9/24

*This was from a selection of 24 samples so while I didn't reference a list, I at least vaguely knew what samples were in the pool, and of course the 24th guess could only have been one thing.

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